Arkayne Blog

Financing 101 - Your Numbers Will Be Scrutinized

By admin | September 6, 2008

Every business proposal has to make sense financially. Any investor looking at your proposal is looking for two things, large numbers and real numbers. They are not mutually exclusive. The investor has a minimum desired return and your startup has a maximum possible return. Its your job to make sure they align.

Take for example John McCain and Barack Obama, they both have energy proposals in front of an investor (US voters). McCain has the Lexington Project focused on Nuclear Energy and domestic oil. Obama has the New Energy For America focused on solar and wind. Diving in depth into every proposal that comes across an investors desk is impossible. Instead investors like to pick out the key points and verify them with as little effort as possible to immediately dismiss poor investments. With both proposals in front of the investor can do a quick bit of research on something as simple as Wikipedia to find out if the numbers add up. List sources and numbers that the investor will trust, otherwise the proposal may seem shady.

Sources

Wikipedia is a trusted source reviewed by millons and easily searched. It is a great example of a likely source where investors will try to pick apart your market and financial numbers. For this post the data comes from the following sources:

Market Size Numbers

Investors always look at market size. Make sure your proposal uses terminology that clearly defines the boundary of your intended market. In the case of the McCain and Obama proposals, the words “American people” jump right off the page, clearly defining the market as the US population. A market is defined as much by its size as its growth. Market growth has a heavy impact on future financial estimates. The plans seem to lay out 2025 as the goal, thats a good future projection date. A quick search on US population statistics reveals the following:

US RESIDENTIAL POPULATION AND USAGE FACTS
US Population Today 300,000,000
US Population 2025 350,000,000
Average Home Size (2 Parents + 2.5 Kids) 4.5 People
US Households Today 6,666,666
US Households In 2025 7,888,888
Keep in mind the numbers below are accurate but not exact. An investor will not dive into intricate models.

Why Honesty Is The Best Policy

With the market size in perspective the investor can now judge your ability to forecast your startups future. Of course the financial projections you include in your proposal will promise success and significant profits. The investor is not judging your moral character here, by running the numbers you are being evaluated on market understanding, ability to plan, and general skill at managing a startup. Generally your proposal is the first insight into who you are as a potential CEO managing the investor’s money. Make sure your proposal numbers and projections not only show those characteristics but hold up under scrutiny. Bad numbers can be adjusted over a single conversation, bad CEOs bankrupt companies.

The Obama Plan, Investor Perspective

The corner stone of Obama’s plan is renewable energy. Solar and wind taking the forefront. The proposal is for the US population to derive energy from wind and solar. Solar is more expensive than wind so it will simplify things to go with solar costs when evaluating the financial projections. Of course there are factors like weather and location that greatly affect costs of solar which the proposal should mention. Assuming the worst possible numbers for a solar installation like the North East US will make thing simple again. The Solar City website has some terrific tools for estimating solar costs. Ten minutes on the site yields the following numbers:

SOLAR FACTS
Solar Install Cost For Average Household 6.0 KW System $48,000.00
Solar Recurring Costs Per KW $0.00
Solar Lifespan 30 years
Solar Households Today 10,000
SOLAR IN 2025
Solar Installations Needed 2025 78,888,888
Additional Solar Plants Needed 2025 78,878,888
Unsubsidized Cost to Build By 2025 $3,786,666,624,000
Operational Cost Lifetime $0

The total cost of putting solar on every household in the US by the end of the New Energy For America Plan in 2025 is $3.7 trillion. Thats a heavy price tag that factors in installation, parts, and labor. Unfortunately with solar the variance from customer to customer will be high so thats a risk to the plan. Overall the average breakdown per household is what matters. Will the US population be able to afford the New Energy For America Plan?

New Energy For America Cost Per Household
Unsubsidized Cost Per Household $48,000 Over 30 years
Unsubsidized Cost Per Household Amortized Plant Lifespan $1,600 Annual
Unsubsidized Cost Per Household Per Month (Figure Above / 12) $133 Monthly

That comes to about $133 a month for electricity per average household for 30 years. After 30 years panels lose efficiency. The price is not that steep considering today electricity costs about $133 a month per household (varies by state). So electing Obama to office with the New Energy For America Plan will cost you personally $133 a month in electric bills or taxes if its subsidized. A $33 a month increase from today. From a national economy and GDP perspective it will cost the nation over 60 years $7.5 trillion dollars. Not a good deal unless you count the jobs and new economy it will create. Each family will lose $400 a year or 1% of an avarage $40,000 annual income. Maybe the other proposal is more cost effective…

The investor quickly boiled down a complex problem into a simple number understanding how it affects the market and the consumer relative to what is promised in the proposal. Many assumptions are made with the goal not getting bogged down in never ending detail. The margin of error is reasonable. Unfortunately for Obama the promise of lower costs for families is not, the numbers clearly show that households will pay more. From an investor point of view the numbers are a bit off. A clear market understanding is there but more detail is needed on expected solar costs down the road. Based on this proposal, Obama will need to have a conversation with the investor regarding adjustments to the cost projections.

The McCain Plan, Investor Perspective

Nuclear power and domestic oil is the focal point of McCain’s Lexington Project. Nuclear is the cheaper more ecologically friendly electric grid energy production method over even clean coal. Nuclear costs are difficult to quantify because of construction, operation, fuel, and disposal costs. The Department Of Energy Nuclear Report for 1995 will provide accurate metrics. To meet US domestic energy needs in 2025 with a growing population the investment in nuclear needs to be…

NUCLEAR FACTS
Nuclear Plant Construction $7,000,000,000
Nuclear Plant Power Centralized Lines $3,000,000,000
Average Annual Maintenance Costs $172,649
Annual Uranium Disposal $48,000
Annual Uranium Costs (source of popular 5.9 cents per KW figure) $8
Nuclear Lifespan 60
Nuclear Plants Today 104
Energy Share From 104 Nuclear Plants Today 20.00%
Energy Share From 104 Nuclear Plants In 2025 16.90%
NUCLEAR IN 2025
Total Nuclear Plants Needed In 2025 615
Additional Nuclear Plants Needed In 2025 563
Cost To Build By 2025 $5,630,000,000,000
Operational Cost Lifetime $8,142,243,300
Total Nuclear Power Plant Cost If Built By 2025 $5,638,142,243,300

The price tag of McCain’s Lexington Project by 2025 is $5.6 trillion. The price tag does not address environmental issues or the new dependency nuclear plants crate on foreign uranium. The US is seventh in uranium production with Russia having 8X as much production. The risk of becoming dependent on foreign uranium is significant. Will the US population be able to afford the Lexington Projet?

Cost Per Household $71,469 Total
Cost Per Household Amortized Plant Lifespan $1,191 Annual
Cost Per Household Per Month (Figure Above / 12) $99 Monthly

The cost of the Lexington Project proposed by McCain will not increase the average $100 bill per month for 60 years. Thats right on target for what the proposal promised. So electing McCain to office with the Lexington Project will cost nothing extra a month in electric bills or taxes. From a national economy and GDP perspective however the $5.6 trillion price for a technology that leaves us dependent on foreign uranium is high. Based on the proposal and the perliminary research, McCain will have to have a conversation with the investor about suppliers before being funded.

Both proposals show a sufficient understanding of the market. From an investor point of view the McCain proposal is investable at first glance. The proposal does lack a clear outline of how uranium will be acquired and disposed of. Suppliers need to be clearly defined, and hidden costs explained in order for the proposal to be solid. The Obama plan has a key advantage in the initial cost being only $3.7 trillion vs. McCain’s $5.6 trillion. Overall a $33 difference between nuclear and solar is less than expected. The solar proposal needs better forecasting on expect prices over the next 60 years to even out the financial numbers. More due diligence is needed on both sides.

Conclusion

As someone who will one day write a proposal never lie about your numbers. Investors are too smart to fall for it. With the age of information came the ability to evaluate any proposal quickly, cheaply, and without hesitation. Make sure your proposal clearly defines the market and your expected returns inline with what the investor believes and more importantly, can verify. The wording and terminology in your proposal will influence which statistics the investor researches and how those numbers will be calculated. Always assume the simplest equations and make sure they work. If your entire plan rests on a hidden variable that only you know about then make sure the investor is aware of it. Otherwise your numbers won’t add up in the face of scrutiny and your proposal will be rejected before you have a chance to explain.

Plans In Review

Personally I feel much more confident in my decision come November 2008. McCain’s Lexington Project and Obama’s New Energy For America Plan are separated by only $33 a month for the average household. That is a much smaller gap than portrayed by some camps but its not just about the money…

Lexington Project New Energy For America
Inital 60 Year Investement $5.6 Trillion Inital 30 Year Investment $3.7 Trillion
60 Year Cost Per Household $71,469 Unsubsidized 30 Year Cost Per Household $48,000 Total
Cost Per Household Amortized Plant Lifespan $1,191 Unsubsidized Cost Per Household Amortized Plant Lifespan $1,600 Annual
Cost Per Household Per Month (Figure Above / 12) $99 Unsubsidized Cost Per Household Per Month (Figure Above / 12) $133 Monthly

Topics: Comparison, Investment | 1 Comment »

An Investable Proposal One Page Template

By admin | August 28, 2008

Writing a proposal for investors is probably one of the most daunting startup tasks I have ever undertaken. So much pressure, so little experience, and no one has a clear cut clue as to how to do it. Everyone is an expert until you ask them to actually help you write one. Then the excuses about how each one is different, and the only one who can write a proposal is the founder. Somehow the point is missed, its not about a unique proposal, its about presenting a unique idea in an standard proposal.

My moment of proposal euphoria came last Wednesday when I attended an Invest Southwest Get Ready Seminar at ASU’s Skysong. A couple of investors came in and gave us the cheat sheet on how to write a proposal. For a free seminar they agave away about $2,000 worth of proposal writing information. If you haven’t done so already read the other post covering what goes into the proposal, An Investable Proposal Dirty And To The Point. Here it is, the template…

Arkayne Investment

spam@arkayne.com

Pitch The pitch is a one sentence that is meant to do nothing other than build interest enough to read on. Here is the almost fill in the blank pitch….

We provide (product or service) to (market niche) who want (benefits).

Executive Summary If your investor reads this far you’ve got permission to elaborate. In the first sentence state the problem and define the market size. In the second sentence re-iterate the one line pitch, its OK to repeat just tie it in with the problem statement. Third sentence is the differentiator. Something along the lines of…

Unlike (competitive landscape) we (differentiate).

If you have secret sauce mention it in the last sentence.

Product/Services Now dive deeper into your exact product or service. Remember keep it light on tech, no one cars how you’re doing as much as how it affects the customers.

Target Market Define size characteristics and potential share. Remember to mention velocity, investors want to hear that the market is hot. Be realistic this is where you show understanding of your product and your potential.

Customers/Management Who are your existing customers? Big names help, try to score one or two big deals vs many small ones, go for recognizable brand names. If you don’t have customers rely on your credentials, mention past successes in startups, throw in awards, universities, companies of prestige you worked for. Mention notable advisers on your team. In other words its about who you know. Do NOT mention years of experience in any way, awards and places of employment speak volumes, resumes will be asked for at a later point. Background checks will reveal the rest.

Sales/Marketing Strategy MARKETING IS WHY YOU ARE ASKING FOR FUNDING! This is the section that describes how you are going to spend your investors money. Marketing is the only reason you should be asking for money, Investors want to fund marketing not development. If you need development then draw a clear line as to how it will support marketing.

Business Model Don’t get into too much detail here, this is a discussion for your next meeting but let the investor know you have a plan. Make sure that plan is easily visualized as a basic concept. Numbers need not be mentioned here, just general approach.

Competitors List them in detail beyond what you had in your executive summary. This is the place to mention specific names. Do not mitigate or justify their position or risk, just show that you know who they are and are prepared to talk about them. List them thats it, it helps define your market.

Competitive Advantage Your differentiator in the executive summary should have already given the investor an idea. After scanning the list above the investor will want to know details. Explain market advantage not technology advantage. Why will customers want your product more? Define a reasonable market share and if you can mention that you have patents, copyrights and trademarks.

Financial chart, no text just numbers.
Financials 2008 2009 2010 2011 (be positive by now) 2012 (50 million plus revenue) 2013 2014
Revenues $0 $0 $0 $3,000 $20,000 $55,000 $80,000
Expenditures $200 $400 $800 $1,200 $2,500 $5,000 $10,000
Net ($200) ($400) ($800) $1,800 $17,500 $50,000 $70,000
In Thousands (000)

Company Profile

URL: arkayne.com
IndustryLink Exchange
Employees: 3
Founded: 7/2008

Contact:

Paul Kenjora
spam@arkayne.com
w 111-222-3333
c 444-555-6666
f 777-888-9999

Address

2222 N Invest Way
Phoenix, AZ 85020
USA

Financial Information

Funding Stage:Beta
Capital Raised:$50,000
Monthly Burn Rate:$4,000
Pre-Money Valuation:$2,000,000
Capital Seeking:$500,000

Management

Paul Kenjora, CEO
Andrew RichCTO

Advisors

John and Mitch

investors

Friends
Family

Referred By:

John Doe Someone the investor knows personally.

This template is based roughly on the one provided by Angel Soft. It was the one presented at the Southwest Investor session, I modified content with suggestions from the presentation.

Focus On Next Step

Getting investment out of the gate takes about 12 months. So be patient, focus on each step as it comes up, don’t expect to walk out of the first few meetings with cash in hand. Be realistic and keep the investors frame of reference in mind. The proposal is only step one of a long process. Typically the steps are as follows:

  1. Get in front of an investor with your proposal.
  2. Give in person presentation.
  3. Both parties do due diligence.
  4. Talk final numbers get funding.

Conclusion

Read the proposal form the investors point of view. They see thousands of these floating around every year but invest in a few. The above format was strongly recommended by the panel. By using the above template you are putting a unique idea into a standard easily understood format for your target investor. Remember the goal is to get interest, funding comes later.

By the way if you’re looking for investors find them on the Angel Capita; Association Directory. The exact template above is generated for you free through Angel Soft Online Tool.

Topics: Investment | No Comments »

An Investable Proposal Dirty And To The Point

By admin | August 28, 2008

Last Wednesday I attended an Invest Southwest Get Ready Seminar at ASU’s Skysong. Although aimed at the December Invest Southwest event I found it very applicable to any startup putting together a proposal for investors. The meeting want a long way to cutting through the theory on how to put together a proposal and literally filled in the blanks. What I learned and what I’m putting down here is about $2,000 worth of consulting on how to write a winning proposal. I’m not kidding, consultants have quoted me that much for the exact same info you’re about to read.

Warning: I was a bit depressed when I left the session. It seems a startup has to be started up to be investable. It makes sense, this is reality not a TechCrunch dream. Good news is there is light at the end of the tunnel.

Light At The End Of The Tunnel: By the time you’re finished reading and comprehending this article you will be able to write a one page almost fill in the blank proposal that has a very good chance of landing you some funds. Straight from the investors mouth, one page is all investors want, its all you need. If you can’t describe your startup in one page then you won’t get anyones attention with the proposal.

Presented by investors from the Phoenix valley, the session had an audience of about 20 people. I’m transcribing this directly from my notes so hopefully you’ll get a taste for how the 2 hour crash course flowed. Keep in mind the goal of the presenter was to ensure anyone applying for the December Invest Southwest event wouldn’t be wasting the panels time. The panel consists of dozens of accredited investors who’ve been doing this for years.

Investors will fund the CEO not the idea.

Investors will fund the CEO not the idea.

Investors will fund the CEO not the idea.

Thats not a typo. That was repeated every three minutes and it makes sense. Investors want to make money not save the world (its good if the two overlap but not necessary). Making money is not about the idea but the ability to execute on it. Give a bad idea to a good CEO and money will be made, give a good idea to a bad CEO and you wont get a return. Convince the investor you can make money first and foremost, everything you do ties back to that. Keep that in mind when writing the proposal, draw a tree diagram connecting everything back to that idea if you have to. From now on its not the idea its you, you are either investable or not.

Key Reasons You Are Not Investable

Every single point above ties back to being a good CEO. None of the issues there are technical. Investors want to see and feel that the founders will be able to tackle any issue on that list at any stage in the startups growth.

Key Reasons You Will Get Investment

Startups With An Advantage

You are always competing with others for investment dollars. Its better to have an edge, and three simple things give you an unquestionable advantage…

The Proposal

If you think you’ve got everything above down then write the proposal. Do NOT pretend you have it all down, you’re only fooling yourself. Those are the reasons only a handful of companies get funded. Those are the reasons companies with bad ideas get funded. Those are the reasons you may or may not get funded. Its a checklist, its been boiled down, don’t guess, just go through the lists and make sure you can check each of them off. You are NOT too busy and working on the product is not more important if you are looking for funding.

Sigh… So this post will be ridiculously long if I add the proposal template here. Instead I will link it purely to keep things nice and organized. A template for a proposal encompassing all of the ideas above is as described and shown at An Investable Proposal One Page Template. Its almost fill in the blank with ideas an key concepts listed in each section.

Topics: Investment | No Comments »

Link Popularity Is Too Popular

By admin | August 6, 2008

Link Exchange High School

If your blog was attending link exchange school, who would you go with popularity or relevance…
Its high school all over again, if you’re not one of the popular kids forget about going varsity. Ten reasons why popularity linking is a game they wont let you win and ten counter reasons why relevance is the new geek you’ll want to date.

Popularity

Relevance

Ten Against Link Popularity

Ten For Link Relevance

Topics: Uncategorized | No Comments »